Model revenue · Calculator
Subscription Revenue Forecast Calculator
Project subscription customers and revenue from starting customers, monthly additions, churn and pricing. Explore up to ten years of assumptions.
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Over time
Month by month
| Month | Expected customers | MRR | Cumulative revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 105 | $5,250 | $5,250 |
| 2 | 109.8 | $5,488 | $10,738 |
| 3 | 114.3 | $5,713 | $16,451 |
| 4 | 118.5 | $5,927 | $22,378 |
| 5 | 122.6 | $6,131 | $28,509 |
| 6 | 126.5 | $6,325 | $34,834 |
| 7 | 130.2 | $6,508 | $41,342 |
| 8 | 133.7 | $6,683 | $48,025 |
| 9 | 137 | $6,849 | $54,874 |
| 10 | 140.1 | $7,006 | $61,880 |
| 11 | 143.1 | $7,156 | $69,036 |
| 12 | 146 | $7,298 | $76,334 |
How does a subscription revenue forecast work?
This projects a subscription business month by month: each month keeps the customers who did not churn, adds the new ones, and multiplies by the monthly price.
How the calculation works
Each month: ending customers = previous customers × (1 − churn) + new customers. Modeled monthly revenue = ending customers × monthly price. Add each month for cumulative revenue.
Worked example
Starting with 100 customers, adding 10 and losing 5% each month gives 105 customers and $5,250 in modeled revenue in month one at $50 per customer.
Assumptions and limitations
Churn applies before additions; new customers contribute a full month. Fractional customers represent expected values. Pricing and additions stay constant. No expansion, annual billing, refunds, costs or seasonality is modeled. The result is a scenario, not a prediction.
Frequently asked questions
What is monthly churn?
The share of paying customers who cancel in a month. 5% monthly churn means 5 of every 100 customers leave each month.
Why does the customer count level off?
With steady additions and a constant churn rate, the business approaches the point where monthly losses equal monthly additions: new customers ÷ churn rate. Adding 10 a month at 5% churn approaches 200 customers.
How do I model annual plans?
Enter the monthly equivalent price and the monthly equivalent churn. The model does not show the cash timing of annual prepayments.
Does it include upgrades or price increases?
No. Price and additions stay constant. Expansion revenue, discounts and seasonality are left out so the baseline is easy to read.
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Research the market behind your assumptions
Night Watcher helps you investigate companies and search demand before deciding what to build: traffic, growth, pricing and the searches buyers are making.