SaaS Market Research: Build an Evidence Map

Research a SaaS market by separating demand, buyers, competition and distribution. Use a practical evidence log instead of a single market-size estimate.

By Night Watcher · Examples are fictional and illustrate a research method.

Start with the decision you need to make

A useful market-research question has a consequence: which customer segment should you test, which problem deserves a prototype, or which distribution channel should you try? Define that decision before collecting charts. Otherwise it is easy to assemble impressive data without changing what you would build.

The SBA describes market research and competitive analysis as complementary ways to understand customers and competing options. For a SaaS project, use that distinction to maintain separate evidence about the buyer's problem and your proposed advantage. The workflow below is our suggested research process, not a claim that every idea needs the same dataset.

Collect four kinds of evidence

Demand: record the language people use, recurring complaints and tasks they already perform. Buyer: identify the user, budget owner and purchase process. Competition: inspect products, manual workflows and the option of doing nothing. Distribution: name the places you can realistically reach qualified buyers.

For each observation, keep the source, date, geography, measurement definition and limitation. A global traffic estimate is not US search demand. Monthly searches are not unique people. Several keyword variants may overlap. A company's public pricing is an offer, not proof that customers pay that amount.

Triangulate rather than average incompatible numbers

Use interviews to explain the behavior suggested by public data. Use product documentation to test whether an apparent feature gap really exists. Use a small outreach or landing-page experiment to investigate reachability. Agreement between different sources can strengthen a hypothesis, but correlated estimates are not independent confirmation.

When sources disagree, keep both values and their definitions. Do not average website visits, keyword volume and paying customers into a market score. Check whether the date, geography or unit differs before deciding that one source is wrong.

Worked example: reports for independent agencies

Imagine a fictional reporting tool aimed at small agencies. You find active discussions about time spent preparing client reports, several paid reporting products and interviewees who already export spreadsheets. That is evidence of an existing workflow and alternatives. It does not yet show which agency segment will switch.

Choose a narrower segment and list organizations you can actually contact. If your scenario assumes 500 reachable organizations, a $40 monthly price and 5% adoption, the result is 25 customers and $1,000 MRR. The adoption rate is an assumption to test, not a forecast. Show a lower and higher scenario and record what evidence would change either.

Finish with a research memo

Write one page: the decision, strongest supporting observation, strongest contrary observation, unresolved risk and next experiment. Attach the evidence log rather than burying contradictory findings. Date the memo and set a review point after the next test.

Stop collecting when additional sources are unlikely to change the immediate decision. A small, well-defined pilot often teaches more about purchase behavior than another broad market-size report. Keep private interview details private; an anonymized summary is usually enough for collaborators.

Your worksheet

Copy these prompts into your own notes. No signup is required.

Market research evidence log
Decision to make:
Customer segment and geography:
Demand observation:
Buyer and budget observation:
Current alternatives:
Reachable distribution channel:
Source URL or interview reference:
Observation date and period:
Unit and measurement definition:
What this evidence cannot establish:
Contrary evidence:
Next experiment and review date:

Download the text worksheet

Test your assumptions

Use the related free calculator, then compare the scenario with evidence from actual buyers.

For company and search-demand research, explore Night Watcher plans.